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Where Are Interest Rates Going

As we enter 2014 this is definitely one of the big things on my radar. From where I’m sitting, it just seems that everyone is convinced that rates are going higher. And maybe they are. But when everyone is this sure of something, I really enjoy taking a closer look at the other side.
Today we’re looking at 10-year yields. I don’t want to get into a whole philosophical conversation about QE or Bernanke or Yellen. I can’t worry about any of that stuff. In my opinion, we need to look at how the market feels about all of that. You see, a lot of people say a lot of things; there’s a ton of noise out there, but price is the only truth that I feel comfortable enough to trust.
Rates are at a very critical level right now. Take a look at the sentiment data, I’ve been talking about it here over the last month. The consensus view is that rates rise. That makes me wonder what would happen if they don’t….(more)

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